

*************     OPEN LOG FILE     ************

log using "E:\Zarit Project\Regional Convergence.Krause & Zarit.10-06-2015.SI MANUSCRIPT MODEL.SANS CONTROLS.smcl" 



*************     DYNAMIC ECONOMETRIC MODELS, I: OLS WITH NEWEY-WEST VCV ESTIMATION WITHOUT CONTROLS   ******************




******** OPEN DATABASE ****************

use "E:\Zarit Project\Regional Convergence.Krause & Zarit.06-08-2015.Master Database.dta", clear 


set more off


tsset state_fips year, yearly



preserve

*************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
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*****************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
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*** I.A: NON-SOUTHERN STATES (N = 35): FULL TIME PERIOD (1942 - 2010): BIVARIATE DYNAMIC PANEL ARDL(4,3)--ECM REGRESSION MODELS OF STATE REAL PER CAPITA PERSONAL INCOME [real_pc_inc_ann] /// 
///       & STATE klarnerranney INDEX FOR PARTISAN COMPETITION IN LEGISLATURE/REPRESENTATIVE ASSEMBLIES [klarnerranney] WITH TWO-WAY FIXED EFFECTS [STATE AND TIME UNIT EFFECTS]  ***




// (4,3)  MODEL

******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************

qui reg d.real_pc_inc_ann  l.real_pc_inc_ann l.klarnerranney   l.d.real_pc_inc_ann d.klarnerranney  l2.d.real_pc_inc_ann  l.d.klarnerranney  l3.d.real_pc_inc_ann l2.d.klarnerranney  i.state_fips i.year if nonsouth==1

estat ic


******INCOME EQUATION*********

newey d.real_pc_inc_ann  l.real_pc_inc_ann l.klarnerranney   l.d.real_pc_inc_ann d.klarnerranney  l2.d.real_pc_inc_ann  l.d.klarnerranney  l3.d.real_pc_inc_ann l2.d.klarnerranney  i.state_fips i.year if nonsouth==1, lag(8) force

predict real_pc_inc_annhatallfull if nonsouth==1



* TESTING INCOME ERROR CORRECTION RATE *

test l.real_pc_inc_ann = 0 


* TESTING INCOME FOR COINTEGRATION VIA LONG-RUN COEFFICIENT JOINT EQUALITY WITH ZERO (WEAK EXOGENEITY) *

test l.real_pc_inc_ann = l.klarnerranney = 0


* ESTIMATING CUMULATIVE SHORT-RUN EFFECTS FOR NON-LEFT-HAND SIDE VARIABLE *

lincom  d.klarnerranney +  l.d.klarnerranney +  l2.d.klarnerranney 



* TESTING FOR LONG-RUN MULTIPLIER EFFECT *

nlcom _b[l.klarnerranney]/-_b[l.real_pc_inc_ann] 


 

******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************


qui reg d.klarnerranney  l.klarnerranney l.real_pc_inc_ann l.d.klarnerranney d.real_pc_inc_ann  l2.d.klarnerranney  l.d.real_pc_inc_ann  l3.d.klarnerranney l2.d.real_pc_inc_ann  l4.d.klarnerranney l3.d.real_pc_inc_ann   i.state_fips i.year if nonsouth==1

estat ic



******PARTISAN COMPETITION EQUATION*********


newey d.klarnerranney  l.klarnerranney l.real_pc_inc_ann l.d.klarnerranney d.real_pc_inc_ann  l2.d.klarnerranney  l.d.real_pc_inc_ann  l3.d.klarnerranney l2.d.real_pc_inc_ann  l4.d.klarnerranney l3.d.real_pc_inc_ann   i.state_fips i.year if nonsouth==1, lag(8) force

predict klarnerranneyhatallfull if nonsouth==1



* TESTING PARTISAN COMPETITION ERROR CORRECTION RATE *

test l.klarnerranney = 0 


* TESTING PARTISAN COMPETITION FOR COINTEGRATION VIA LONG-RUN COEFFICIENT JOINT EQUALITY WITH ZERO (WEAK EXOGENEITY) *

test l.klarnerranney = l.real_pc_inc_ann = 0


* ESTIMATING CUMULATIVE SHORT-RUN EFFECTS FOR NON-LEFT-HAND SIDE VARIABLE *

lincom  d.real_pc_inc_ann +  l.d.real_pc_inc_ann  +  l2.d.real_pc_inc_ann +  l3.d.real_pc_inc_ann 


* TESTING FOR LONG-RUN MULTIPLIER EFFECT *

nlcom _b[l.real_pc_inc_ann]/-_b[l.klarnerranney]





***********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
***********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
***********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
***********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
***********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
***********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
***********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
***********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
***********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
***********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
***********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
***********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************




// (5,4)  MODEL



*** I.B: NON-SOUTHERN STATES (N = 35): PRE-PARTISAN ALIGNMENT TIME PERIOD (1942 -1980) ***


******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
qui reg d.real_pc_inc_ann  l.real_pc_inc_ann l.klarnerranney   l.d.real_pc_inc_ann d.klarnerranney  l2.d.real_pc_inc_ann  l.d.klarnerranney  l3.d.real_pc_inc_ann l2.d.klarnerranney  l4.d.real_pc_inc_ann l3.d.klarnerranney   i.state_fips i.year if year <=1980 & nonsouth==1
estat ic


******INCOME EQUATION*********


newey d.real_pc_inc_ann  l.real_pc_inc_ann l.klarnerranney   l.d.real_pc_inc_ann d.klarnerranney  l2.d.real_pc_inc_ann  l.d.klarnerranney  l3.d.real_pc_inc_ann l2.d.klarnerranney  l4.d.real_pc_inc_ann l3.d.klarnerranney   i.state_fips i.year if year <=1980 & nonsouth==1, lag(6) force

predict real_pc_inc_annhatallpre if year<=1980 & nonsouth==1



* TESTING INCOME ERROR CORRECTION RATE *

test l.real_pc_inc_ann = 0 


* TESTING INCOME FOR COINTEGRATION VIA LONG-RUN COEFFICIENT JOINT EQUALITY WITH ZERO (WEAK EXOGENEITY) *

test l.real_pc_inc_ann = l.klarnerranney = 0



* ESTIMATING CUMULATIVE SHORT-RUN EFFECTS FOR NON-LEFT-HAND SIDE VARIABLE *

lincom  d.klarnerranney +  l.d.klarnerranney +  l2.d.klarnerranney +  l3.d.klarnerranney 



* TESTING FOR LONG-RUN MULTIPLIER EFFECT *

nlcom _b[l.klarnerranney]/-_b[l.real_pc_inc_ann] 



sum klarnerranney   if real_pc_inc_annhatallpre!=. & year <= 1980 & nonsouth==1, detail



* TOTAL/DYNAMIC MULTIPLIER & BASELINE LONG-RUN EFFECTS  OF klarnerranney ON real_pc_inc_ann:  75TH PERCENTILE VALUE OF klarnerranney MINUS 25TH PERCENTILE VALUE OF klarnerranney FOR EFFECTIVE SAMPLE PERIOD *


nlcom  (_b[l.klarnerranney]/-_b[l.real_pc_inc_ann])*88  - (_b[l.klarnerranney]/-_b[l.real_pc_inc_ann])*57.88889


 
******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************


qui reg d.klarnerranney  l.klarnerranney l.real_pc_inc_ann l.d.klarnerranney d.real_pc_inc_ann  l2.d.klarnerranney  l.d.real_pc_inc_ann  l3.d.klarnerranney l2.d.real_pc_inc_ann  l4.d.klarnerranney l3.d.real_pc_inc_ann   i.state_fips i.year if year <=1980 & nonsouth==1
estat ic



******PARTISAN COMPETITION EQUATION*********



newey d.klarnerranney  l.klarnerranney l.real_pc_inc_ann l.d.klarnerranney d.real_pc_inc_ann  l2.d.klarnerranney  l.d.real_pc_inc_ann  l3.d.klarnerranney l2.d.real_pc_inc_ann  l4.d.klarnerranney l3.d.real_pc_inc_ann   i.state_fips i.year if year <=1980 & nonsouth==1, lag(6) force

predict klarnerranneyhatallpre if year<=1980 & nonsouth==1

 

* TESTING PARTISAN COMPETITION ERROR CORRECTION RATE *

test l.klarnerranney = 0 


* TESTING PARTISAN COMPETITION FOR COINTEGRATION VIA LONG-RUN COEFFICIENT JOINT EQUALITY WITH ZERO (WEAK EXOGENEITY) *

test l.klarnerranney = l.real_pc_inc_ann = 0



* ESTIMATING CUMULATIVE SHORT-RUN EFFECTS FOR NON-LEFT-HAND SIDE VARIABLE *

lincom  d.real_pc_inc_ann +  l.d.real_pc_inc_ann +  l2.d.real_pc_inc_ann +  l3.d.real_pc_inc_ann 


* TESTING FOR LONG-RUN MULTIPLIER EFFECT *

nlcom _b[l.real_pc_inc_ann]/-_b[l.klarnerranney]



sum real_pc_inc_ann   if klarnerranneyhatallpre!=. & year<=1980 & nonsouth==1, detail


* TOTAL/DYNAMIC MULTIPLIER & BASELINE LONG-RUN EFFECTS  OF  real_pc_inc_ann ON klarnerranney:  75TH PERCENTILE VALUE OF real_pc_inc_ann MINUS 25TH PERCENTILE VALUE OF real_pc_inc_ann FOR EFFECTIVE SAMPLE PERIOD 


nlcom  (_b[l.real_pc_inc_ann] / -_b[l.klarnerranney])*11116.22   -  (_b[l.real_pc_inc_ann] / -_b[l.klarnerranney])*7127.247 


  
***********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
***********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
***********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
***********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
***********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
***********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************



// (4,3)  MODEL



*** I.C: NON-SOUTHERN STATES (N = 35): POST-PARTISAN ALIGNMENT TIME PERIOD (1981 - 2010) ***


******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
qui reg d.real_pc_inc_ann  l.real_pc_inc_ann l.klarnerranney   l.d.real_pc_inc_ann d.klarnerranney  l2.d.real_pc_inc_ann  l.d.klarnerranney  l3.d.real_pc_inc_ann l2.d.klarnerranney l.csi_perc_cap_outlays l.d.csi_perc_cap_outlays l.right_to_work l.d.right_to_work l.csi_welf_perc_total l.d.csi_welf_perc_tota   i.state_fips i.year if year >1980 & nonsouth==1

estat ic


******INCOME EQUATION*********

newey d.real_pc_inc_ann  l.real_pc_inc_ann l.klarnerranney   l.d.real_pc_inc_ann d.klarnerranney  l2.d.real_pc_inc_ann  l.d.klarnerranney  l3.d.real_pc_inc_ann l2.d.klarnerranney l.csi_perc_cap_outlays l.d.csi_perc_cap_outlays l.right_to_work l.d.right_to_work l.csi_welf_perc_total l.d.csi_welf_perc_tota   i.state_fips i.year if year >1980 & nonsouth==1, lag(5) force

predict real_pc_inc_annhatallpost if year>1980 & nonsouth==1



* TESTING INCOME ERROR CORRECTION RATE *

test l.real_pc_inc_ann = 0 


* TESTING INCOME FOR COINTEGRATION VIA LONG-RUN COEFFICIENT JOINT EQUALITY WITH ZERO (WEAK EXOGENEITY) *

test l.real_pc_inc_ann = l.klarnerranney = 0


* ESTIMATING CUMULATIVE SHORT-RUN EFFECTS FOR NON-LEFT-HAND SIDE VARIABLE *

lincom   d.klarnerranney +  l.d.klarnerranney +  l2.d.klarnerranney



* TESTING FOR LONG-RUN MULTIPLIER EFFECT *

nlcom _b[l.klarnerranney]/-_b[l.real_pc_inc_ann] 



sum klarnerranney   if  real_pc_inc_annhatallpost!=. & year > 1980 & nonsouth==1, detail



* TOTAL/DYNAMIC MULTIPLIER & BASELINE LONG-RUN EFFECTS  OF klarnerranney ON real_pc_inc_ann:  75TH PERCENTILE VALUE OF klarnerranney MINUS 25TH PERCENTILE VALUE OF klarnerranney FOR EFFECTIVE SAMPLE PERIOD *


nlcom  (_b[l.klarnerranney] / - _b[l.real_pc_inc_ann])*91.25554  -  (_b[l.klarnerranney] / - _b[l.real_pc_inc_ann])*65.40031 



******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************

qui reg d.klarnerranney  l.klarnerranney l.real_pc_inc_ann l.d.klarnerranney d.real_pc_inc_ann  l2.d.klarnerranney  l.d.real_pc_inc_ann  l3.d.klarnerranney l2.d.real_pc_inc_ann  i.state_fips i.year if year >1980 & nonsouth==1
estat ic


******PARTISAN COMPETITION EQUATION*********


newey d.klarnerranney  l.klarnerranney l.real_pc_inc_ann l.d.klarnerranney d.real_pc_inc_ann  l2.d.klarnerranney  l.d.real_pc_inc_ann  l3.d.klarnerranney l2.d.real_pc_inc_ann  i.state_fips i.year if year >1980 & nonsouth==1, lag(5) force



predict klarnerranneyhatallpost if year>1980 & nonsouth==1

* 


* TESTING PARTISAN COMPETITION ERROR CORRECTION RATE *

test l.klarnerranney = 0 


* TESTING PARTISAN COMPETITION FOR COINTEGRATION VIA LONG-RUN COEFFICIENT JOINT EQUALITY WITH ZERO (WEAK EXOGENEITY) *

test l.klarnerranney = l.real_pc_inc_ann = 0


* ESTIMATING CUMULATIVE SHORT-RUN EFFECTS FOR NON-LEFT-HAND SIDE VARIABLE *

lincom  d.real_pc_inc_ann  +  l.d.real_pc_inc_ann  +  l2.d.real_pc_inc_ann 



* TESTING FOR LONG-RUN MULTIPLIER EFFECT *

nlcom _b[l.real_pc_inc_ann]/-_b[l.klarnerranney]




sum real_pc_inc_ann  klarnerranney  if klarnerranneyhatallpost!=. & year > 1980 & nonsouth==1, detail



* TOTAL/DYNAMIC MULTIPLIER & BASELINE LONG-RUN EFFECTS  OF  real_pc_inc_ann ON klarnerranney:  75TH PERCENTILE VALUE OF real_pc_inc_ann MINUS 25TH PERCENTILE VALUE OF real_pc_inc_ann FOR EFFECTIVE SAMPLE PERIOD 


nlcom  (_b[l.real_pc_inc_ann] / -_b[l.klarnerranney])*17661.71   -  (_b[l.real_pc_inc_ann] / -_b[l.klarnerranney])*13630.93



restore

******************************************************************************
******************************************************************************
******************************************************************************
******************************************************************************
******************************************************************************
******************************************************************************
******************************************************************************
******************************************************************************
******************************************************************************
******************************************************************************


preserve


******************************************************************************
******************************************************************************
******************************************************************************
******************************************************************************
******************************************************************************
******************************************************************************
******************************************************************************
******************************************************************************
******************************************************************************
******************************************************************************





// (4,3)  MODEL



*** II.A: SOUTHERN STATES (N = 14): FULL TIME PERIOD (1942 - 2010) ***


******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************

qui reg d.real_pc_inc_ann  l.real_pc_inc_ann l.klarnerranney   l.d.real_pc_inc_ann d.klarnerranney  l2.d.real_pc_inc_ann  l.d.klarnerranney  l3.d.real_pc_inc_ann l2.d.klarnerranney  l.nonfarm_persinc l.d.nonfarm_persinc l.gov_party l.d.gov_party i.state_fips i.year if nonsouth==0
estat ic


******INCOME EQUATION*********


newey d.real_pc_inc_ann  l.real_pc_inc_ann l.klarnerranney   l.d.real_pc_inc_ann d.klarnerranney  l2.d.real_pc_inc_ann  l.d.klarnerranney  l3.d.real_pc_inc_ann l2.d.klarnerranney  l.nonfarm_persinc l.d.nonfarm_persinc l.gov_party l.d.gov_party i.state_fips i.year if nonsouth==0, lag(8) force

predict real_pc_inc_annhatallfull



* TESTING INCOME ERROR CORRECTION RATE *

test l.real_pc_inc_ann = 0 


* TESTING INCOME FOR COINTEGRATION VIA LONG-RUN COEFFICIENT JOINT EQUALITY WITH ZERO (WEAK EXOGENEITY) *

test l.real_pc_inc_ann = l.klarnerranney = 0



* ESTIMATING CUMULATIVE SHORT-RUN EFFECTS FOR NON-LEFT-HAND SIDE VARIABLE *

lincom d.klarnerranney +  l.d.klarnerranney +  l2.d.klarnerranney 


* TESTING FOR LONG-RUN MULTIPLIER EFFECT *

nlcom _b[l.klarnerranney]/-_b[l.real_pc_inc_ann] 


*



******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************


******PARTISAN COMPETITION EQUATION*********

qui regress d.ihsklarnerranney  l.ihsklarnerranney l.real_pc_inc_ann l.d.ihsklarnerranney d.real_pc_inc_ann  l2.d.ihsklarnerranney  l.d.real_pc_inc_ann  l3.d.ihsklarnerranney l2.d.real_pc_inc_ann  i.state_fips i.year if nonsouth==0

estat ic

*

newey d.ihsklarnerranney  l.ihsklarnerranney l.real_pc_inc_ann l.d.ihsklarnerranney d.real_pc_inc_ann  l2.d.ihsklarnerranney  l.d.real_pc_inc_ann  l3.d.ihsklarnerranney l2.d.real_pc_inc_ann  i.state_fips i.year if nonsouth==0, lag(8) force

predict ihsklarnerranneyhatallfull if nonsouth==0



* TESTING PARTISAN COMPETITION ERROR CORRECTION RATE *

test l.ihsklarnerranney = 0 


* TESTING PARTISAN COMPETITION FOR COINTEGRATION VIA LONG-RUN COEFFICIENT JOINT EQUALITY WITH ZERO (WEAK EXOGENEITY) *

test l.ihsklarnerranney = l.real_pc_inc_ann = 0


* ESTIMATING CUMULATIVE SHORT-RUN EFFECTS FOR NON-LEFT-HAND SIDE VARIABLE *

lincom  d.real_pc_inc_ann +  l.d.real_pc_inc_ann  +  l2.d.real_pc_inc_ann 



* TESTING FOR LONG-RUN MULTIPLIER EFFECT *

nlcom _b[l.real_pc_inc_ann]/-_b[l.ihsklarnerranney]






***********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
***********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
***********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
***********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
***********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
***********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************



// (4,3)  MODEL




*** II.B: SOUTHERN STATES (N = 14): PRE-PARTISAN ALIGNMENT TIME PERIOD (1942 - 1980)***


******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
qui reg d.real_pc_inc_ann  l.real_pc_inc_ann l.klarnerranney   l.d.real_pc_inc_ann d.klarnerranney  l2.d.real_pc_inc_ann  l.d.klarnerranney  l3.d.real_pc_inc_ann l2.d.klarnerranney l.csi_perc_cap_outlays l.d.csi_perc_cap_outlays l.right_to_work l.d.right_to_work l.csi_welf_perc_total l.d.csi_welf_perc_tota i.state_fips i.year if year <=1980 & nonsouth==0
estat ic


******INCOME EQUATION*********


newey d.real_pc_inc_ann  l.real_pc_inc_ann l.klarnerranney   l.d.real_pc_inc_ann d.klarnerranney  l2.d.real_pc_inc_ann  l.d.klarnerranney  l3.d.real_pc_inc_ann l2.d.klarnerranney l.csi_perc_cap_outlays l.d.csi_perc_cap_outlays l.right_to_work l.d.right_to_work l.csi_welf_perc_total l.d.csi_welf_perc_tota i.state_fips i.year if year <=1980 & nonsouth==0, lag(6) force

predict real_pc_inc_annhatallpre if year<=1980 & nonsouth==0



* TESTING INCOME ERROR CORRECTION RATE *

test l.real_pc_inc_ann = 0 


* TESTING INCOME FOR COINTEGRATION VIA LONG-RUN COEFFICIENT JOINT EQUALITY WITH ZERO (WEAK EXOGENIETY)*

test l.real_pc_inc_ann = l.klarnerranney = 0


* ESTIMATING CUMULATIVE SHORT-RUN EFFECTS FOR NON-LEFT-HAND SIDE VARIABLE *

lincom  d.klarnerranney +  l.d.klarnerranney +  l2.d.klarnerranney 



* TESTING FOR LONG-RUN MULTIPLIER EFFECT *

nlcom _b[l.klarnerranney]/-_b[l.real_pc_inc_ann] 



sum klarnerranney  if real_pc_inc_annhatallpre!=. & year<=1980 & nonsouth==0, detail



* TOTAL/DYNAMIC MULTIPLIER & BASELINE LONG-RUN EFFECTS OF  klarnerranney ON real_pc_inc_ann:  75TH PERCENTILE VALUE OF klarnerranney MINUS 25TH PERCENTILE VALUE OF klarnerranney FOR EFFECTIVE SAMPLE PERIOD *


nlcom  (_b[l.klarnerranney] / - _b[l.real_pc_inc_ann])* 39.39394  -  (_b[l.klarnerranney]  / - _b[l.real_pc_inc_ann])* 1.923077


******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************



******PARTISAN COMPETITION EQUATION*********

qui regress d.ihsklarnerranney  l.ihsklarnerranney l.real_pc_inc_ann l.d.ihsklarnerranney d.real_pc_inc_ann  l2.d.ihsklarnerranney  l.d.real_pc_inc_ann  l3.d.ihsklarnerranney l2.d.real_pc_inc_ann  i.state_fips i.year if year <=1980 & nonsouth==0

estat ic

*

newey d.ihsklarnerranney  l.ihsklarnerranney l.real_pc_inc_ann l.d.ihsklarnerranney d.real_pc_inc_ann  l2.d.ihsklarnerranney  l.d.real_pc_inc_ann  l3.d.ihsklarnerranney l2.d.real_pc_inc_ann  i.state_fips i.year if year <=1980 & nonsouth==0, lag(6) force

predict ihsklarnerranneyhatallpre if year<=1980 & nonsouth==0


 
* TESTING PARTISAN COMPETITION ERROR CORRECTION RATE *

test l.ihsklarnerranney = 0 


* TESTING PARTISAN COMPETITION FOR COINTEGRATION VIA LONG-RUN COEFFICIENT JOINT EQUALITY WITH ZERO (WEAK EXOGENIETY)*

test l.ihsklarnerranney = l.real_pc_inc_ann = 0



* ESTIMATING CUMULATIVE SHORT-RUN EFFECTS FOR NON-LEFT-HAND SIDE VARIABLE *

lincom  d.real_pc_inc_ann +  l.d.real_pc_inc_ann +  l2.d.real_pc_inc_ann 



* TESTING FOR LONG-RUN MULTIPLIER EFFECT *

nlcom _b[l.real_pc_inc_ann]/-_b[l.ihsklarnerranney]



sum real_pc_inc_ann   if ihsklarnerranneyhatallpre!=. & year<=1980 & nonsouth==0, detail

*


* TOTAL/DYNAMIC MULTIPLIER & BASELINE LONG-RUN EFFECTS  OF  real_pc_inc_ann ON ihsklarnerranney:  75TH PERCENTILE VALUE OF real_pc_inc_ann MINUS 25TH PERCENTILE VALUE OF real_pc_inc_ann FOR EFFECTIVE SAMPLE PERIOD 


nlcom  (_b[l.real_pc_inc_ann] / -_b[l.ihsklarnerranney])*8860.249   -  (_b[l.real_pc_inc_ann] / -_b[l.ihsklarnerranney])*4972.713

  
***********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
***********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
***********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
***********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
***********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
***********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************




// (4,3)  MODEL




*** II.C: SOUTHERN STATES (N = 14): POST-PARTISAN ALIGNMENT TIME PERIOD (1981 - 2010) ***


******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************

qui reg d.real_pc_inc_ann  l.real_pc_inc_ann l.klarnerranney   l.d.real_pc_inc_ann d.klarnerranney  l2.d.real_pc_inc_ann  l.d.klarnerranney  l3.d.real_pc_inc_ann l2.d.klarnerranney  i.state_fips i.year if year >1980 & nonsouth==0
estat ic


******INCOME EQUATION*********

newey d.real_pc_inc_ann  l.real_pc_inc_ann l.klarnerranney   l.d.real_pc_inc_ann d.klarnerranney  l2.d.real_pc_inc_ann  l.d.klarnerranney  l3.d.real_pc_inc_ann l2.d.klarnerranney  i.state_fips i.year if year >1980 & nonsouth==0, lag(5) force

predict real_pc_inc_annhatallpost if year>1980 & nonsouth==0



* TESTING INCOME ERROR CORRECTION RATE *

test l.real_pc_inc_ann = 0 


* TESTING INCOME FOR COINTEGRATION VIA LONG-RUN COEFFICIENT JOINT EQUALITY WITH ZERO (WEAK EXOGENIETY)*

test l.real_pc_inc_ann = l.klarnerranney = 0



* ESTIMATING CUMULATIVE SHORT-RUN EFFECTS FOR NON-LEFT-HAND SIDE VARIABLE *

lincom  d.klarnerranney +  l.d.klarnerranney +  l2.d.klarnerranney 


* TESTING FOR LONG-RUN MULTIPLIER EFFECT *

nlcom _b[l.klarnerranney]/-_b[l.real_pc_inc_ann] 


sum klarnerranney real_pc_inc_ann  if real_pc_inc_annhatallpost!=. & year>1980 & nonsouth==0, detail



* TOTAL/DYNAMIC MULTIPLIER & BASELINE LONG-RUN EFFECTS OF klarnerranney ON real_pc_inc_ann:  75TH PERCENTILE VALUE OF klarnerranney MINUS 25TH PERCENTILE VALUE OF klarnerranney FOR EFFECTIVE SAMPLE PERIOD *


nlcom  (_b[l.klarnerranney] / - _b[l.real_pc_inc_ann])*83.33333  -  (_b[l.klarnerranney]  / - _b[l.real_pc_inc_ann])*46.58065 





******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************

qui reg d.klarnerranney  l.klarnerranney l.real_pc_inc_ann l.d.klarnerranney d.real_pc_inc_ann  l2.d.klarnerranney  l.d.real_pc_inc_ann  l3.d.klarnerranney l2.d.real_pc_inc_ann  i.state_fips i.year if year >1980 & nonsouth==0
estat ic



******PARTISAN COMPETITION EQUATION*********


newey d.klarnerranney  l.klarnerranney l.real_pc_inc_ann l.d.klarnerranney d.real_pc_inc_ann  l2.d.klarnerranney  l.d.real_pc_inc_ann  l3.d.klarnerranney l2.d.real_pc_inc_ann  i.state_fips i.year if year >1980 & nonsouth==0, lag(5) force

predict klarnerranneyhatallpost if year>1980 & nonsouth==0


*
 
* TESTING PARTISAN COMPETITION ERROR CORRECTION RATE *

test l.klarnerranney = 0 


* TESTING PARTISAN COMPETITION FOR COINTEGRATION VIA LONG-RUN COEFFICIENT JOINT EQUALITY WITH ZERO (WEAK EXOGENIETY) *

test l.klarnerranney = l.real_pc_inc_ann = 0



* ESTIMATING CUMULATIVE SHORT-RUN EFFECTS FOR NON-LEFT-HAND SIDE VARIABLE *

lincom  d.real_pc_inc_ann +  l.d.real_pc_inc_ann +  l2.d.real_pc_inc_ann 



* TESTING FOR LONG-RUN MULTIPLIER EFFECT *

nlcom _b[l.real_pc_inc_ann]/-_b[l.klarnerranney]



sum real_pc_inc_ann  if klarnerranneyhatallpost !=. & year > 1980 & nonsouth==0, detail



* TOTAL/DYNAMIC MULTIPLIER & BASELINE LONG-RUN EFFECTS OF  real_pc_inc_ann ON klarnerranney:  75TH PERCENTILE VALUE OF real_pc_inc_ann MINUS 25TH PERCENTILE VALUE OF real_pc_inc_ann FOR EFFECTIVE SAMPLE PERIOD 


nlcom  (_b[l.real_pc_inc_ann] / -_b[l.klarnerranney])*15294.64   -  (_b[l.real_pc_inc_ann] / - _b[l.klarnerranney])*11966



restore 


******************************************************************************
******************************************************************************
******************************************************************************
******************************************************************************
******************************************************************************
******************************************************************************
******************************************************************************
******************************************************************************
******************************************************************************
******************************************************************************
******************************************************************************
******************************************************************************
******************************************************************************
******************************************************************************
******************************************************************************
******************************************************************************
******************************************************************************
******************************************************************************
******************************************************************************
******************************************************************************



preserve







//(4,3)  MODEL




*** III.A: NEW SOUTH STATES (N = 5): FULL TIME PERIOD (1942 -2010) ***


******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************

qui reg d.real_pc_inc_ann  l.real_pc_inc_ann l.klarnerranney   l.d.real_pc_inc_ann d.klarnerranney  l2.d.real_pc_inc_ann  l.d.klarnerranney  l3.d.real_pc_inc_ann l2.d.klarnerranney  i.state_fips i.year if newsouth==1
estat ic


******INCOME EQUATION*********


newey d.real_pc_inc_ann  l.real_pc_inc_ann l.klarnerranney   l.d.real_pc_inc_ann d.klarnerranney  l2.d.real_pc_inc_ann  l.d.klarnerranney  l3.d.real_pc_inc_ann l2.d.klarnerranney  i.state_fips i.year if newsouth==1, lag(8) force

predict real_pc_inc_annhatallfull if newsouth==1



* TESTING INCOME ERROR CORRECTION RATE *

test l.real_pc_inc_ann = 0 


* TESTING INCOME FOR COINTEGRATION VIA LONG-RUN COEFFICIENT JOINT EQUALITY WITH ZERO (WEAK EXOGENEITY)*

test l.real_pc_inc_ann = l.klarnerranney = 0


* ESTIMATING CUMULATIVE SHORT-RUN EFFECTS FOR NON-LEFT-HAND SIDE VARIABLE *

lincom  d.klarnerranney +  l.d.klarnerranney  +  l2.d.klarnerranney 



* TESTING FOR LONG-RUN MULTIPLIER EFFECT *

nlcom _b[l.klarnerranney]/-_b[l.real_pc_inc_ann] 



******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************


******PARTISAN COMPETITION EQUATION*********


qui regress d.ihsklarnerranney  l.ihsklarnerranney l.real_pc_inc_ann l.d.ihsklarnerranney d.real_pc_inc_ann  l2.d.ihsklarnerranney  l.d.real_pc_inc_ann  l3.d.ihsklarnerranney l2.d.real_pc_inc_ann  i.state_fips i.year if newsouth==1

estat ic

*

newey d.ihsklarnerranney  l.ihsklarnerranney l.real_pc_inc_ann l.d.ihsklarnerranney d.real_pc_inc_ann  l2.d.ihsklarnerranney  l.d.real_pc_inc_ann  l3.d.ihsklarnerranney l2.d.real_pc_inc_ann  i.state_fips i.year if newsouth==1, lag(8) force

predict ihsklarnerranneyhatallfull if newsouth==1


 
* TESTING PARTISAN COMPETITION ERROR CORRECTION RATE *

test l.ihsklarnerranney = 0 


* TESTING PARTISAN COMPETITION FOR COINTEGRATION VIA LONG-RUN COEFFICIENT JOINT EQUALITY WITH ZERO (WEAK EXOGENEITY)*

test l.ihsklarnerranney = l.real_pc_inc_ann = 0


* ESTIMATING CUMULATIVE SHORT-RUN EFFECTS FOR NON-LEFT-HAND SIDE VARIABLE *

lincom  d.real_pc_inc_ann  +  l.d.real_pc_inc_ann  +  l2.d.real_pc_inc_ann 



* TESTING FOR LONG-RUN MULTIPLIER EFFECT *

nlcom _b[l.real_pc_inc_ann]/-_b[l.ihsklarnerranney]






***********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
***********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
***********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
***********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
***********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
***********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
***********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
***********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
***********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
***********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
***********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
***********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************




//(4,3)  MODEL




*** III.B: NEW SOUTH STATES (N = 5): PRE-PARTISAN ALIGNMENT TIME PERIOD (1942 - 1980) ***


******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
qui reg d.real_pc_inc_ann  l.real_pc_inc_ann l.klarnerranney   l.d.real_pc_inc_ann d.klarnerranney  l2.d.real_pc_inc_ann  l.d.klarnerranney  l3.d.real_pc_inc_ann l2.d.klarnerranney  i.state_fips i.year if year <=1980 & newsouth==1
estat ic


******INCOME EQUATION*********

newey d.real_pc_inc_ann  l.real_pc_inc_ann l.klarnerranney   l.d.real_pc_inc_ann d.klarnerranney  l2.d.real_pc_inc_ann  l.d.klarnerranney  l3.d.real_pc_inc_ann l2.d.klarnerranney  i.state_fips i.year if year <=1980 & newsouth==1, lag(6) force

predict real_pc_inc_annhatallpre if year<=1980 & newsouth==1



* TESTING INCOME ERROR CORRECTION RATE *

test l.real_pc_inc_ann = 0 


* TESTING INCOME FOR COINTEGRATION VIA LONG-RUN COEFFICIENT JOINT EQUALITY WITH ZERO (WEAK EXOGENEITY)*

test l.real_pc_inc_ann = l.klarnerranney = 0


* ESTIMATING CUMULATIVE SHORT-RUN EFFECTS FOR NON-LEFT-HAND SIDE VARIABLE *

lincom  d.klarnerranney +  l.d.klarnerranney +  l2.d.klarnerranney 



* TESTING FOR LONG-RUN MULTIPLIER EFFECT *

nlcom _b[l.klarnerranney]/-_b[l.real_pc_inc_ann] 



sum klarnerranney   if real_pc_inc_annhatallpre!=. & year<=1980 & newsouth==1, detail




* TOTAL/DYNAMIC MULTIPLIER & BASELINE LONG-RUN EFFECTS OF  klarnerranney ON real_pc_inc_ann:  75TH PERCENTILE VALUE OF klarnerranney MINUS 25TH PERCENTILE VALUE OF klarnerranney FOR EFFECTIVE SAMPLE PERIOD *


nlcom  (_b[l.klarnerranney] / - _b[l.real_pc_inc_ann])*25.56989  -  (_b[l.klarnerranney] / - _b[l.real_pc_inc_ann])*4.290876


******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************

qui regress d.ihsklarnerranney  l.ihsklarnerranney l.real_pc_inc_ann l.d.ihsklarnerranney d.real_pc_inc_ann  l2.d.ihsklarnerranney  l.d.real_pc_inc_ann  l3.d.ihsklarnerranney l2.d.real_pc_inc_ann  i.state_fips i.year if year <=1980 & newsouth==1

estat ic


******PARTISAN COMPETITION EQUATION*********

newey d.ihsklarnerranney  l.ihsklarnerranney l.real_pc_inc_ann l.d.ihsklarnerranney d.real_pc_inc_ann  l2.d.ihsklarnerranney  l.d.real_pc_inc_ann  l3.d.ihsklarnerranney l2.d.real_pc_inc_ann  i.state_fips i.year if year <=1980 & newsouth==1, lag(6) force

predict ihsklarnerranneyhatallpre if year<=1980 & newsouth==1

 

* TESTING PARTISAN COMPETITION ERROR CORRECTION RATE *

test l.ihsklarnerranney = 0 


* TESTING PARTISAN COMPETITION FOR COINTEGRATION VIA LONG-RUN COEFFICIENT JOINT EQUALITY WITH ZERO (WEAK EXOGENEITY)*

test l.ihsklarnerranney = l.real_pc_inc_ann = 0


* ESTIMATING CUMULATIVE SHORT-RUN EFFECTS FOR NON-LEFT-HAND SIDE VARIABLE *

lincom  d.real_pc_inc_ann +  l.d.real_pc_inc_ann  +  l2.d.real_pc_inc_ann 


* TESTING FOR LONG-RUN MULTIPLIER EFFECT *

nlcom _b[l.real_pc_inc_ann]/-_b[l.ihsklarnerranney]




sum real_pc_inc_ann   if ihsklarnerranneyhatallpre !=. & year<=1980 & newsouth==1, detail


* TOTAL/DYNAMIC MULTIPLIER & BASELINE LONG-RUN EFFECTS OF real_pc_inc_ann ON ihsklarnerranney:  75TH PERCENTILE VALUE OF real_pc_inc_ann MINUS 25TH PERCENTILE VALUE OF real_pc_inc_ann FOR EFFECTIVE SAMPLE PERIOD 


nlcom  (_b[l.real_pc_inc_ann] / - _b[l.ihsklarnerranney])*9803.36   -  (_b[l.real_pc_inc_ann] / - _b[l.ihsklarnerranney])*5533.502

  
***********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
***********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
***********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
***********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
***********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
***********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************




//(4,3)  MODEL




*** III.C: NEW SOUTH STATES (N = 5): POST-PARTISAN ALIGNMENT TIME PERIOD (1981 - 2010) ***


******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
qui reg d.real_pc_inc_ann  l.real_pc_inc_ann l.klarnerranney   l.d.real_pc_inc_ann d.klarnerranney  l2.d.real_pc_inc_ann  l.d.klarnerranney  l3.d.real_pc_inc_ann l2.d.klarnerranney l.csi_perc_cap_outlays l.d.csi_perc_cap_outlays l.right_to_work l.d.right_to_work l.csi_welf_perc_total l.d.csi_welf_perc_tota i.state_fips i.year if year >1980 & newsouth==1
estat ic


******INCOME EQUATION*********

newey d.real_pc_inc_ann  l.real_pc_inc_ann l.klarnerranney   l.d.real_pc_inc_ann d.klarnerranney  l2.d.real_pc_inc_ann  l.d.klarnerranney  l3.d.real_pc_inc_ann l2.d.klarnerranney l.csi_perc_cap_outlays l.d.csi_perc_cap_outlays l.right_to_work l.d.right_to_work l.csi_welf_perc_total l.d.csi_welf_perc_tota i.state_fips i.year if year >1980 & newsouth==1, lag(5) force

predict real_pc_inc_annhatallpost if year>1980 & newsouth==1



* TESTING INCOME ERROR CORRECTION RATE *

test l.real_pc_inc_ann = 0 


* TESTING INCOME FOR COINTEGRATION VIA LONG-RUN COEFFICIENT JOINT EQUALITY WITH ZERO (WEAK EXOGENIETY)*

test l.real_pc_inc_ann = l.klarnerranney = 0



* ESTIMATING CUMULATIVE SHORT-RUN EFFECTS FOR NON-LEFT-HAND SIDE VARIABLE *

lincom  d.klarnerranney +  l.d.klarnerranney  +  l2.d.klarnerranney 



* TESTING FOR LONG-RUN MULTIPLIER EFFECT *

nlcom _b[l.klarnerranney]/-_b[l.real_pc_inc_ann] 




sum klarnerranney  if real_pc_inc_annhatallpost!=. & year>1980 & newsouth==1, detail


* TOTAL/DYNAMIC MULTIPLIER & BASELINE LONG-RUN EFFECTS OF klarnerranney ON real_pc_inc_ann:  75TH PERCENTILE VALUE OF klarnerranney MINUS 25TH PERCENTILE VALUE OF klarnerranney FOR EFFECTIVE SAMPLE PERIOD *


nlcom  (_b[l.klarnerranney] / - _b[l.real_pc_inc_ann])*85.82796   -  (_b[l.klarnerranney] / - _b[l.real_pc_inc_ann])*56.68817



******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************

qui reg d.klarnerranney  l.klarnerranney l.real_pc_inc_ann l.d.klarnerranney d.real_pc_inc_ann  l2.d.klarnerranney  l.d.real_pc_inc_ann  l3.d.klarnerranney l2.d.real_pc_inc_ann  i.state_fips i.year if year >1980 & newsouth==1
estat ic



******PARTISAN COMPETITION EQUATION*********


newey d.klarnerranney  l.klarnerranney l.real_pc_inc_ann l.d.klarnerranney d.real_pc_inc_ann  l2.d.klarnerranney  l.d.real_pc_inc_ann  l3.d.klarnerranney l2.d.real_pc_inc_ann  i.state_fips i.year if year >1980 & newsouth==1, lag(5) force

predict klarnerranneyhatallpost if year>1980 & newsouth==1



* TESTING PARTISAN COMPETITION ERROR CORRECTION RATE *

test l.klarnerranney = 0 


* TESTING PARTISAN COMPETITION FOR COINTEGRATION VIA LONG-RUN COEFFICIENT JOINT EQUALITY WITH ZERO (WEAK EXOGENEITY)*

test l.klarnerranney = l.real_pc_inc_ann = 0



* ESTIMATING CUMULATIVE SHORT-RUN EFFECTS FOR NON-LEFT-HAND SIDE VARIABLE *

lincom  d.real_pc_inc_ann  +  l.d.real_pc_inc_ann  +  l2.d.real_pc_inc_ann 


* TESTING FOR LONG-RUN MULTIPLIER EFFECT *

nlcom _b[l.real_pc_inc_ann]/-_b[l.klarnerranney]



sum  real_pc_inc_ann    if klarnerranneyhatallpost!=. & year>1980 & newsouth==1, detail


* TOTAL/DYNAMIC MULTIPLIER & BASELINE LONG-RUN EFFECTS OF  real_pc_inc_ann ON klarnerranney:  75TH PERCENTILE VALUE OF real_pc_inc_ann MINUS 25TH PERCENTILE VALUE OF real_pc_inc_ann FOR EFFECTIVE SAMPLE PERIOD 


nlcom  (_b[l.real_pc_inc_ann] / - _b[l.klarnerranney])*16574.21   -  (_b[l.real_pc_inc_ann] / - _b[l.klarnerranney])*13297.69   




restore 


******************************************************************************
******************************************************************************
******************************************************************************
******************************************************************************
******************************************************************************
******************************************************************************
******************************************************************************
******************************************************************************
******************************************************************************
******************************************************************************
******************************************************************************
******************************************************************************
******************************************************************************
******************************************************************************
******************************************************************************
******************************************************************************
******************************************************************************
******************************************************************************
******************************************************************************
******************************************************************************



preserve




//(5,4) MODEL




*** IV.A: OLD SOUTH STATES (N = 9): FULL TIME PERIOD (1942 - 2010) ***


******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
qui reg d.real_pc_inc_ann  l.real_pc_inc_ann l.klarnerranney   l.d.real_pc_inc_ann d.klarnerranney  l2.d.real_pc_inc_ann  l.d.klarnerranney  l3.d.real_pc_inc_ann l2.d.klarnerranney  l4.d.real_pc_inc_ann l3.d.klarnerranney   i.state_fips i.year if oldsouth==1
estat ic


******INCOME EQUATION*********

newey d.real_pc_inc_ann  l.real_pc_inc_ann l.klarnerranney   l.d.real_pc_inc_ann d.klarnerranney  l2.d.real_pc_inc_ann  l.d.klarnerranney  l3.d.real_pc_inc_ann l2.d.klarnerranney  l4.d.real_pc_inc_ann l3.d.klarnerranney   i.state_fips i.year if oldsouth==1, lag(8) force

predict real_pc_inc_annhatallfullos if oldsouth==1


* TESTING INCOME ERROR CORRECTION RATE *

test l.real_pc_inc_ann = 0 


* TESTING INCOME FOR COINTEGRATION VIA LONG-RUN COEFFICIENT JOINT EQUALITY WITH ZERO (WEAK EXOGENEITY)*

test l.real_pc_inc_ann = l.klarnerranney = 0



* ESTIMATING CUMULATIVE SHORT-RUN EFFECTS FOR NON-LEFT-HAND SIDE VARIABLE *

lincom  d.klarnerranney +  l.d.klarnerranney +  l2.d.klarnerranney +  l3.d.klarnerranney 



* TESTING FOR LONG-RUN MULTIPLIER EFFECT *

nlcom _b[l.klarnerranney]/-_b[l.real_pc_inc_ann] 


*


******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************

qui regress d.ihsklarnerranney  l.ihsklarnerranney l.real_pc_inc_ann l.d.ihsklarnerranney d.real_pc_inc_ann  l2.d.ihsklarnerranney  l.d.real_pc_inc_ann  l3.d.ihsklarnerranney l2.d.real_pc_inc_ann  i.state_fips i.year if oldsouth==1

estat ic


****** PARTISAN COMPETITION EQUATION*********


newey d.ihsklarnerranney  l.ihsklarnerranney l.real_pc_inc_ann l.d.ihsklarnerranney d.real_pc_inc_ann  l2.d.ihsklarnerranney  l.d.real_pc_inc_ann  l3.d.ihsklarnerranney l2.d.real_pc_inc_ann  i.state_fips i.year if oldsouth==1, lag(8) force

predict ihsklarnerranneyhatallfullos if oldsouth==1



* TESTING PARTISAN COMPETITION ERROR CORRECTION RATE *

test l.ihsklarnerranney = 0 


* TESTING PARTISAN COMPETITION FOR COINTEGRATION VIA LONG-RUN COEFFICIENT JOINT EQUALITY WITH ZERO (WEAK EXOGENEITY)*

test l.ihsklarnerranney = l.real_pc_inc_ann = 0



* ESTIMATING CUMULATIVE SHORT-RUN EFFECTS FOR NON-LEFT-HAND SIDE VARIABLE *

lincom  d.real_pc_inc_ann +  l.d.real_pc_inc_ann  +  l2.d.real_pc_inc_ann 



* TESTING FOR LONG-RUN MULTIPLIER EFFECT *

nlcom _b[l.real_pc_inc_ann]/-_b[l.ihsklarnerranney]



*


***********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
***********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
***********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
***********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
***********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
***********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
***********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
***********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************




// (4,3)  MODEL




*** IV.B: OLD SOUTH STATES (N = 9): PRE-PARTISAN ALIGNMENT TIME PERIOD (1942 - 1980) ***


qui reg d.real_pc_inc_ann  l.real_pc_inc_ann l.klarnerranney   l.d.real_pc_inc_ann d.klarnerranney  l2.d.real_pc_inc_ann  l.d.klarnerranney  l3.d.real_pc_inc_ann l2.d.klarnerranney   i.state_fips i.year if year <=1980 & oldsouth==1
estat ic

******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************

******INCOME EQUATION*********

newey d.real_pc_inc_ann  l.real_pc_inc_ann l.klarnerranney   l.d.real_pc_inc_ann d.klarnerranney  l2.d.real_pc_inc_ann  l.d.klarnerranney  l3.d.real_pc_inc_ann l2.d.klarnerranney   i.state_fips i.year if year <=1980 & oldsouth==1, lag(6) force

predict real_pc_inc_annhatallpre if year<=1980 & oldsouth==1




* TESTING INCOME ERROR CORRECTION RATE *

test l.real_pc_inc_ann = 0 


* TESTING INCOME FOR COINTEGRATION VIA LONG-RUN COEFFICIENT JOINT EQUALITY WITH ZERO (WEAK EXOGENEITY)*

test l.real_pc_inc_ann = l.klarnerranney = 0


* ESTIMATING CUMULATIVE SHORT-RUN EFFECTS FOR NON-LEFT-HAND SIDE VARIABLE *

lincom d.klarnerranney +  l.d.klarnerranney +  l2.d.klarnerranney 



* TESTING FOR LONG-RUN MULTIPLIER EFFECT *

nlcom _b[l.klarnerranney]/-_b[l.real_pc_inc_ann] 



sum klarnerranney   if real_pc_inc_annhatallpre!=. & year<=1980 & oldsouth==1, detail


* TOTAL/DYNAMIC MULTIPLIER & BASELINE LONG-RUN EFFECTS  OF  klarnerranney ON real_pc_inc_ann:  75TH PERCENTILE VALUE OF klarnerranney MINUS 25TH PERCENTILE VALUE OF klarnerranney FOR EFFECTIVE SAMPLE PERIOD *


nlcom  (_b[l.klarnerranney] / - _b[l.real_pc_inc_ann])*44.05263  -  (_b[l.klarnerranney] / - _b[l.real_pc_inc_ann])*0.9433962



******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************

qui regress d.ihsklarnerranney  l.ihsklarnerranney l.real_pc_inc_ann l.d.ihsklarnerranney d.real_pc_inc_ann  l2.d.ihsklarnerranney  l.d.real_pc_inc_ann  l3.d.ihsklarnerranney l2.d.real_pc_inc_ann  i.state_fips i.year if year <=1980 & oldsouth==1

estat ic

*

******PARTISAN COMPETITION EQUATION*********


newey d.ihsklarnerranney  l.ihsklarnerranney l.real_pc_inc_ann l.d.ihsklarnerranney d.real_pc_inc_ann  l2.d.ihsklarnerranney  l.d.real_pc_inc_ann  l3.d.ihsklarnerranney l2.d.real_pc_inc_ann  i.state_fips i.year if year <=1980 & oldsouth==1, lag(6) force

predict ihsklarnerranneyhatallpre if year<=1980 & oldsouth==1

 

* TESTING PARTISAN COMPETITION ERROR CORRECTION RATE *

test l.ihsklarnerranney = 0


* TESTING PARTISAN COMPETITION FOR COINTEGRATION VIA LONG-RUN COEFFICIENT JOINT EQUALITY WITH ZERO (WEAK EXOGENEITY)*

test l.ihsklarnerranney = l.real_pc_inc_ann = 0



* ESTIMATING CUMULATIVE SHORT-RUN EFFECTS FOR NON-LEFT-HAND SIDE VARIABLE *

lincom  d.real_pc_inc_ann +  l.d.real_pc_inc_ann +  l2.d.real_pc_inc_ann + 0



* TESTING FOR LONG-RUN MULTIPLIER EFFECT *

nlcom _b[l.real_pc_inc_ann]/-_b[l.ihsklarnerranney]



sum real_pc_inc_ann    if ihsklarnerranneyhatallpre!=. & year<=1980 & oldsouth==1, detail



* TOTAL/DYNAMIC MULTIPLIER & BASELINE LONG-RUN EFFECTS OF  real_pc_inc_ann ON ihsklarnerranney:  75TH PERCENTILE VALUE OF real_pc_inc_ann MINUS 25TH PERCENTILE VALUE OF real_pc_inc_ann FOR EFFECTIVE SAMPLE PERIOD 


nlcom  (_b[l.real_pc_inc_ann] / - _b[l.ihsklarnerranney])*8432.818   -  (_b[l.real_pc_inc_ann] / - _b[l.ihsklarnerranney])*4643.055



***********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
***********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
***********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
***********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
***********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
***********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************




// (5,4)  MODEL



*** IV.C: OLD SOUTH STATES (N = 9): POST-PARTISAN ALIGNMENT TIME PERIOD (1981 - 2010) ***


******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************

qui reg d.real_pc_inc_ann  l.real_pc_inc_ann l.klarnerranney   l.d.real_pc_inc_ann d.klarnerranney  l2.d.real_pc_inc_ann  l.d.klarnerranney  l3.d.real_pc_inc_ann l2.d.klarnerranney  l4.d.real_pc_inc_ann l3.d.klarnerranney    i.state_fips i.year if year >1980 & oldsouth==1
estat ic


******INCOME EQUATION*********

newey d.real_pc_inc_ann  l.real_pc_inc_ann l.klarnerranney   l.d.real_pc_inc_ann d.klarnerranney  l2.d.real_pc_inc_ann  l.d.klarnerranney  l3.d.real_pc_inc_ann l2.d.klarnerranney  l4.d.real_pc_inc_ann l3.d.klarnerranney    i.state_fips i.year if year >1980 & oldsouth==1, lag(5) force

predict real_pc_inc_annhatallpost if year>1980 & oldsouth==1



* TESTING INCOME ERROR CORRECTION RATE *

test l.real_pc_inc_ann = 0 


* TESTING INCOME FOR COINTEGRATION VIA LONG-RUN COEFFICIENT JOINT EQUALITY WITH ZERO (WEAK EXOGENIETY)*

test l.real_pc_inc_ann = l.klarnerranney = 0



* ESTIMATING CUMULATIVE SHORT-RUN EFFECTS FOR NON-LEFT-HAND SIDE VARIABLE *

lincom  d.klarnerranney +  l.d.klarnerranney +  l2.d.klarnerranney +  l3.d.klarnerranney 


* TESTING FOR LONG-RUN MULTIPLIER EFFECT *

nlcom _b[l.klarnerranney]/-_b[l.real_pc_inc_ann] 


sum klarnerranney   if real_pc_inc_annhatallpost!=. & year > 1980 & oldsouth==1, detail



* TOTAL/DYNAMIC MULTIPLIER & BASELINE LONG-RUN EFFECTS  OF  klarnerranney ON real_pc_inc_ann:  75TH PERCENTILE VALUE OF klarnerranney MINUS 25TH PERCENTILE VALUE OF klarnerranney FOR EFFECTIVE SAMPLE PERIOD *


nlcom  (_b[l.klarnerranney] / - _b[l.real_pc_inc_ann])*81.81818  -  (_b[l.klarnerranney] / - _b[l.real_pc_inc_ann])*39.04762



******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************

qui reg d.klarnerranney  l.klarnerranney l.real_pc_inc_ann l.d.klarnerranney d.real_pc_inc_ann  l2.d.klarnerranney  l.d.real_pc_inc_ann  l3.d.klarnerranney l2.d.real_pc_inc_ann  l4.d.klarnerranney l3.d.real_pc_inc_ann    i.state_fips i.year if year >1980 & oldsouth==1
estat ic


******PARTISAN COMPETITION EQUATION*********

newey d.klarnerranney  l.klarnerranney l.real_pc_inc_ann l.d.klarnerranney d.real_pc_inc_ann  l2.d.klarnerranney  l.d.real_pc_inc_ann  l3.d.klarnerranney l2.d.real_pc_inc_ann  l4.d.klarnerranney l3.d.real_pc_inc_ann    i.state_fips i.year if year >1980 & oldsouth==1, lag(5) force

predict klarnerranneyhatallpost if year>1980 & oldsouth==1


* 

* TESTING PARTISAN COMPETITION ERROR CORRECTION RATE *

test l.klarnerranney = 0


* TESTING PARTISAN COMPETITION FOR COINTEGRATION VIA LONG-RUN COEFFICIENT JOINT EQUALITY WITH ZERO (WEAK EXOGENEITY)*

test l.klarnerranney = l.real_pc_inc_ann = 0



* ESTIMATING CUMULATIVE SHORT-RUN EFFECTS FOR NON-LEFT-HAND SIDE VARIABLE *

lincom  d.real_pc_inc_ann  +  l.d.real_pc_inc_ann  +  l2.d.real_pc_inc_ann  +  l3.d.real_pc_inc_ann 


* TESTING FOR LONG-RUN MULTIPLIER EFFECT *

nlcom _b[l.real_pc_inc_ann]/-_b[l.klarnerranney]




sum real_pc_inc_ann   if klarnerranneyhatallpost!=. & year > 1980 & oldsouth==1, detail


* TOTAL/DYNAMIC MULTIPLIER & BASELINE LONG-RUN EFFECTS  OF  real_pc_inc_ann ON klarnerranney:  75TH PERCENTILE VALUE OF real_pc_inc_ann MINUS 25TH PERCENTILE VALUE OF real_pc_inc_ann FOR EFFECTIVE SAMPLE PERIOD 


nlcom  (_b[l.real_pc_inc_ann] / - _b[l.klarnerranney])* 14367.06   -  (_b[l.real_pc_inc_ann] / - _b[l.klarnerranney])* 11208.2




restore



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